The Futility Of Timing The Market

Timing the market is nothing, but moving in and out of various asset classes based on well prediction or at times assumption, hunch or gut feeling. Well lets give it some respect and call it predictive analysis for the time being. 

Why give it respect? Well because most popular belief to profit from market is - Buy low and sell high. Simple isn't it? Great! now let me ask you this. How low is good enough to buy and how high is good enough to sell?

Now in your mind go through all your remarkable trades that you can remember and notice how many of them were bought at the lowest and sold at highest if your are a bull and vice versa if you are a bear.

I don't know you, but I can guarantee you not many! Irrespective of whatever tool of predictive analysis you used - simple ones like - Moving Average, Support / Resistance, RSI, ADX, MACD or complex ones like - Gann / Elliot Wave/ Neo Wave, Fibonacci and anything else you may have in your arsenal.

On the contrary, you would have lost the major part of rally by trying to time the market. Either you would have exited the trade too early or entered too late. 

Prediction be it logical - whatever method gann/ew/nw/divergance/asset-correlation etc. to ultimate madness or illogical hunch / gut Feeling / just bored has not done any good to a trader / investor, NEVER!

Think about it honey - 

• Did the whatsapp forward about jobless people due to Covid-19 flocking the stock market and surge of new demat accounts opened make you any money? 
  
  
• Did your favorite analyst's chart warning you of nifty top using EW - ABC or trend line or Fib extension or Gann made you any money? Sorry but had to ask you this, did 6000 come?
  
  
• Did your economist's advice of selling any and every asset class and come to cash due to prediction of economic disaster that too global and no recovery to be possible for decades at minimum made you any money?
  
  
• Did your own hunch of things or gut feeling which made you decide to be on the sidelines made you any money? 

Well I know the answer of all the above questions for all of us! Not only you made no money, you even lost much more trying to predict the market, by selling every predicted top or getting out of your very profitable trade due to such warning.

Weather you were on sidelines or you exited early all you can do now is watch the all time highs being made in pharma / IT and Agri stocks. It is difficult to make an entry in them at these levels even for seasoned traders.

If you think you have learnt your lessens and will not miss any future opportunity provided by the Market to buy, let me predict it for you - YOU WILL MISS! Please don't get offended, but its obvious because you are still trying to TIME THE MARKET! 

You will be presented with same question - How much low is low enough for you to buy? The twitter predictors and pandits of various methods of predictive analysis will come up again with target of 6000 or lower!

I have already seen them blowing their trumpet on 0.5% correction in financials since expiry and retweeting how they have saved your 100 bucks by being the first to announce "LONGS BE CAREFUL from here on" Tight SL they say isn't it?

Great Enjoy have fun / adventure anything and everything but money? what about it? What are you for in Market? 

In comparison with these pandits, BullishMomentum is not at all intellectual / knows nothing about Gann / EW - 123/abc or neo wave, We just can't predict the time when target of it's own stocks will be achieved, in fact don't even know if the target will be achieved or not. 

We just follow price foolishly, make money on net portfolio basis, not on each stock and sleep peacefully. The day price turns bearish, we bow out and wait for our time.

Discl: We have nothing at all against any form or method of predictive analysis. In fact we have no capabilities to even understand them! 

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